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The California battery fleet continues to display increased capacity throughout the year with the start the third quarter having the biggest jump. This makes sense given that the power demand is at its highest in the summer months. The fall and winter months reap the benefit of such increases as the year-on-year delta is quite massive during such a growth spurt. As it stands right now, the projection is for the battery fleet to hit 7.2 GW of capacity by the end of 2023 which means it will be walking into 2024 with a level that has never been seen before. The EnergyGPS CAISO Daily Battery Dashboard (part of our Platinum Plus package) details how the fleet is now charging over 3.5 GW any given hour in the midday and discharging over 4.5 GW during the evening ramp. The other element that has come into play as of late is that of the natural gas spot pricing as SoCal Citygate continues to feel downward pressure now that Aliso Canyon is in line for 27 BCF of incremental gas in the ground and a transport system that is once again healthy.
Figure 1 | SoCal Citygate Q1-2024 Forward Contract Daily Settles
In the published content, titled 'Muddying the Arbitrage Waters', we take a look at how the increased battery capacity combined with the falling natural gas prices have impacted the revenue stream tied to the lastest renewable technology.
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