NG NA Premium Morning Report - 2025-03-14   Print
DateFriday March 14, 2025 5:14 AM
NG NA Premium Morning Report - 2025-03-14
Commentary
Thursday’s EIA release showed withdrawals of 62 BCF for the week ending on March 7th, further expanding the year-over-year deficit.  We could start to see that deficit level out or shrink in coming week’s releases given the demand contraction set forth last week and again in the 15-day forecast.  The HDD forecast bumped up slightly yesterday for the period after next Wednesday through the 27th, but overall conditions still look mild with any cooler patterns focused primarily on the West, especially California and the Desert Southwest.  Placquemines and Freeport nominations have recovered from their dips earlier this week pushing LNG demand back up above 15 BCF.  From a forward price perspective, the front of the curve ended up settled slightly lower on the day after a morning recovery tied to the EIA storage number.  Currently, the April contract is down $0.08 ($4.03) as uncertainty pressures tied to the tariff conversations and what is happening with negotiations associated to Russia/Ukraine.

Figure 1 | WSI Daily CDD/HDD Comparison
Forecast HDD's Latest Run Date 3/14/2025 10:28 UTC Compared to Run Date 3/13/2025 10:28 UTC Delta
Region 1-5 Day 6-10 Day 11-15 Day Total 1-5 Day 6-10 Day 11-15 Day Total 1-5 Day 6-10 Day 11-15 Day Total
East 24.3 28.8 27.2 80.3 24 30.1 22.4 76.5 0.3 -1.3 4.8 3.8
Midwest 18.6 26.6 23.5 68.7 19.5 24.8 21.3 65.6 -0.9 1.8 2.2 3.1
Mountain 10.1 10 6.7 26.8 9.8 10.3 7.6 27.7 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.9
Pacific 13.8 10.9 7.1 31.8 14.1 11.6 7.1 32.8 -0.3 -0.7 0 -1
South Central 1.9 3.3 1.4 6.6 1.9 3.2 1.7 6.8 0 0.1 -0.3 -0.2
US 68.7 79.6 65.9 214.2 69.3 80 60.1 209.4 -0.6 -0.4 5.8 4.8

Figure 2 | Natural Gas Daily Supply/Demand Dashboard
Continental US Supply/Demand (BCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY Forecast
Type Component Mar-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16 3/17 3/18 3/19 3/20
Production 100 95.9 96.51 96.2 96.69 96.84 96.03 95.86 95.69 95.73 +0.04 (0.77) (0.16) (3.5) 95.71 95.76 95.48 95.62 95.57 95.56
Can Imports 6.08 8.56 7.56 7.7 7.78 7.7 7.29 7.21 7.44 7.55 +0.1 (0.01) (1.01) +1.48 6.27 7.01 7.56 6.77 6.13 7.4
LNG 0 0.05 (0.03) (0.15) (0.15) (0.15) 0.02 0.01 (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) +0.01 (0.07) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.13) (0.04) (0.03) (0.18)
Supply 106.07 104.5 104.03 103.75 104.32 104.38 103.34 103.08 103.13 103.26 +0.13 (0.78) (1.24) (2.04) 101.98 102.76 102.92 102.36 101.68 102.79
PowerBurns (28.34) (33.23) (25.71) (24.41) (25.72) (25.87) (24.51) (25.19) (24.34) (23.59) +0.75 +2.12 +9.64 +2.62 (23.75) (23.57) (25.59) (25.89) (25.63) (25.81)
ResCom (25.37) (44.77) (31.96) (34.42) (31.49) (28.74) (26.82) (28.66) (27.71) (24.2) +3.51 +7.76 +20.56 (6.59) (21.38) (23.89) (25.77) (23.07) (20.91) (25.23)
Industrial (24.54) (26.57) (25.38) (25.48) (25.36) (25.17) (25.02) (24.96) (24.91) (24.68) +0.23 +0.7 +1.89 (0.84) (22.65) (22.87) (22.87) (22.69) (22.7) (23.04)
MX Exports (6.09) (6.32) (5.49) (5.13) (5.13) (5.45) (5.84) (5.86) (5.71) (5.46) +0.25 +0.03 +0.86 +0.6 (5.77) (5.69) (5.85) (5.7) (5.85) (5.8)
LNG~ (12.65) (15.03) (15.1) (14.91) (15.59) (15.54) (14.82) (14.6) (15.22) (15.19) +0.03 (0.08) (0.16) (2.45) (15.15) (15.14) (15.08) (15.03) (15.01) (15.01)
Demand (96.99) (125.91) (103.65) (104.34) (103.29) (100.78) (97) (99.28) (97.9) (93.12) +4.78 +10.53 +32.8 (6.65) (88.7) (91.16) (95.16) (92.39) (90.1) (94.89)
Pipeline Loss (3.52) (3.34) (3.34) (3.38) (3.21) (3.63) (3.2) (3.26) (3.23) (3.24) (0.01) +0.11 +0.1 +0.18 (3.25) (3.4) (3.27) (3.34) (3.41) (3.25)
Other* (5.96) (6.14) (6.14) (6.14) (6.14) (6.14) (6.14) (6.14) (6.14) (6.14) 0 0 0 (0.17) (5.68) (5.68) (5.68) (5.68) (5.68) (5.68)
Net Supply/(Demand) (0.41) (30.89) (9.09) (10.11) (8.32) (6.17) (3) (5.59) (4.13) 0.77 +4.9 +9.86 +31.66 (8.68) 4.35 2.52 (1.2) 0.94 2.49 (1.03)

Figure 3 | Natural Gas Production
Noms (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
Country Region Mar-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14
Canada 16,186 16,204 16,521 16,535 16,535 16,572 16,526 16,509 16,546 16,466 16,452 (14) (70) +247 +336
Canada 16,186 16,204 16,521 16,535 16,535 16,572 16,526 16,509 16,546 16,466 16,452 (14) (70) +247 +336
East 32,614 31,963 31,879 32,083 31,562 31,810 31,857 31,935 32,014 31,840 31,896 +55 +17 (68) (735)
GulfOfMexico 1,760 1,906 1,882 1,802 1,881 1,881 1,877 1,846 1,841 1,834 1,863 +29 (19) (43) +122
Mountain 18,386 16,894 16,919 16,906 17,075 17,240 17,374 16,792 17,021 17,102 16,883 (219) (36) (11) (1,467)
OtherStates 888 776 689 668 690 690 678 681 640 633 619 (15) (70) (157) (199)
Pacific 298 238 138 140 129 134 118 116 131 96 95 (1) (43) (144) (160)
South Central 46,057 44,121 45,000 45,375 44,866 44,938 44,936 44,662 44,215 44,189 44,380 +191 (621) +259 (1,056)
United States 100,002 95,898 96,507 96,974 96,203 96,693 96,838 96,031 95,861 95,695 95,735 +40 (773) (163) (3,495)
Total 116,188 112,102 113,029 113,508 112,738 113,265 113,364 112,540 112,406 112,161 112,186 +26 (842) +84 (3,159)

Figure 4 | Natural Gas Power Burns
Total Estimate (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
EIA Region Mar-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14
East (13,426) (14,916) (12,702) (12,116) (11,936) (12,481) (12,684) (11,289) (11,406) (11,837) (12,165) (328) +537 +2,751 +724
Midwest (3,537) (4,176) (2,780) (2,879) (2,673) (2,638) (2,435) (2,544) (2,606) (2,265) (2,311) (45) +469 +1,866 +757
Mountain (2,288) (2,299) (1,830) (1,977) (1,778) (1,742) (1,839) (1,879) (2,212) (1,927) (1,895) +32 (65) +404 +458
Pacific (1,703) (2,088) (1,595) (1,458) (1,512) (1,467) (1,693) (1,824) (1,887) (1,559) (1,880) (321) (285) +208 +109
South Central (7,381) (9,748) (6,805) (6,771) (6,507) (7,388) (7,224) (6,975) (7,083) (6,753) (5,336) +1,417 +1,469 +4,412 +577
Total (28,336) (33,228) (25,711) (25,201) (24,405) (25,716) (25,875) (24,511) (25,194) (24,341) (23,587) +754 +2,125 +9,641 +2,624

Figure 5 | LNG Exports - Lower 48 Perspective
Liquified Natural Gas (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
Direction Location Mar-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14
Calcasieu (1,567) (1,312) (1,574) (1,758) (1,689) (1,689) (1,711) (1,770) (1,654) (1,705) (1,705) 0 (131) (392) (7)
Cameron (2,166) (2,258) (2,221) (2,220) (2,174) (2,272) (2,272) (2,258) (2,157) (2,157) (2,151) +5 +70 +107 (55)
Corpus Christi (2,138) (2,168) (2,084) (2,015) (1,938) (2,107) (2,074) (1,427) (2,141) (2,137) (2,156) (19) (72) +12 +54
Cove Point (791) (829) (800) (805) (805) (801) (788) (800) (800) (800) (780) +19 +20 +49 (9)
Elba (369) (334) (297) (303) (308) (306) (300) (290) (290) (290) (290) +0 +8 +44 +72
Freeport (840) (1,973) (1,805) (1,840) (1,761) (1,899) (1,889) (1,878) (1,444) (1,874) (1,877) (2) (71) +97 (965)
Plaquemines 0 (1,329) (1,568) (1,650) (1,590) (1,590) (1,590) (1,619) (1,456) (1,666) (1,696) (30) (129) (367) (1,568)
Sabine (4,784) (4,825) (4,755) (4,515) (4,644) (4,926) (4,914) (4,777) (4,663) (4,591) (4,532) +59 +224 +294 +29
Export (12,654) (15,029) (15,105) (15,105) (14,909) (15,590) (15,538) (14,819) (14,604) (15,220) (15,187) +33 (82) (158) (2,451)

Figure 6 | Canadian Imports/(Exports) - Lower 48 Perspective
Noms (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
Region Mar-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14
AB Imp/(Exp) 4,617 5,518 5,111 4,789 5,072 5,132 5,141 5,212 5,237 5,350 5,350 0 +239 (167) +494
BC Imp/(Exp) 1,251 1,294 1,377 1,384 1,383 1,358 1,370 1,357 1,365 1,374 1,374 0 (4) +79 +127
Central Imp/(Exp) 1,742 2,136 2,291 2,130 2,372 2,368 2,367 2,353 2,336 2,357 2,357 0 +66 +221 +550
East Imp/(Exp) (1,534) (392) (1,225) (1,004) (1,131) (1,079) (1,181) (1,632) (1,723) (1,640) (1,536) +104 (311) (1,144) +309
Total 6,076 8,555 7,555 7,299 7,696 7,780 7,697 7,289 7,215 7,441 7,545 +104 (10) (1,010) +1,480

Figure 7 | Mexico Imports/(Exports) - Lower 48 Perspective
Total Estimate (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
Region Mar-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14
Cali (311) (324) (264) (258) (231) (225) (235) (260) (246) (266) (227) +40 +38 +98 +47
DSW (265) (247) (234) (266) (220) (221) (219) (208) (261) (238) (247) (9) (12) +0 +31
TXS (3,812) (3,837) (3,752) (3,933) (3,407) (3,281) (3,640) (3,988) (4,139) (3,975) (3,998) (23) (246) (161) +59
TXW (1,703) (1,903) (1,260) (1,156) (1,275) (1,412) (1,363) (1,384) (1,221) (1,235) (1,217) +18 +43 +686 +444
Total (6,091) (6,311) (5,511) (5,614) (5,134) (5,138) (5,457) (5,840) (5,867) (5,714) (5,688) +26 (178) +623 +581


Figure 8 | Lower 48 Power Demand
<----Actual Today Forward----> Averages Delta
Category            3/7      3/8      3/9      3/10      3/11      3/12      3/13      3/14      3/15      3/16      3/17      3/18      3/19      3/20      Prev 7     Next 6     WOW      Next Day
Canada 38.6 37.3 36.5 37.6 38.3 38.6 38.3 37.5 35.4 35.7 37.5 36.9 36.9 37.5 37.9 36.7 -1.2 -2.1
AESO 10.7 10.6 10.9 11 11 11 11.3 11.3 10.9 10.9 11 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.9 10.9 0 -0.3
BCH 9 8.5 8.4 9 9.3 9 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.4 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.7 -0.2 -0.3
IESO 18.9 18.2 17.2 17.7 18 18.6 18.1 17.5 16 16.4 17.8 17.2 17.2 17.8 18.1 17.1 -1 -1.5
Northeast 34.9 34 33 32.4 31.7 33.1 32.6 31.2 29.1 29.2 31.4 31.1 30.6 32.6 33.1 30.7 -2.4 -2.1
ISONE 15.7 15.4 15 14.6 14.3 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.2 13.2 14.1 14.2 13.9 14.6 14.9 13.9 -1.1 -0.9
NYISO 19.2 18.6 18 17.8 17.4 18.4 17.8 17.1 15.9 16 17.3 16.9 16.7 18 18.1 16.8 -1.4 -1.2
Mid-Atlantic 105.7 93.5 92.3 100.4 97.5 93.3 95.2 92.4 82.3 85 91.2 95.5 90.1 93 96.8 89.5 -7.3 -10.1
PJM 105.7 93.5 92.3 100.4 97.5 93.3 95.2 92.4 82.3 85 91.2 95.5 90.1 93 96.8 89.5 -7.3 -10.1
Southeast 91.7 77.2 84.4 85.9 87.9 83.6 80.6 84.9 84.1 83.7 84 86.4 86.8 90.8 84.5 86 +1.5 -0.7
Carolinas 32.7 24.6 25 28.5 29.4 27 25.6 25.9 26.2 25.2 25.4 27.6 26.9 27.9 27.5 26.5 -1 +0.3
Florida 28.5 29.6 34 30.5 28.4 29.7 30.5 32.6 32.8 35.4 31.8 30.2 33.5 35.6 30.1 33.2 +3.1 +0.2
SOCO 30.6 23.1 25.4 26.9 30.1 27 24.5 26.4 25.1 23 26.8 28.6 26.3 27.2 26.8 26.2 -0.6 -1.2
Midwest 109.8 96.2 96.3 107.8 104.8 99.9 100.1 97.8 90.8 93.5 104.4 99.3 99.4 97.8 102.1 97.5 -4.6 -7.1
MISO 79.8 72.1 71.2 79.6 77.1 75.4 75.2 70.9 67 69.6 76.9 73.1 74.6 73 75.8 72.4 -3.4 -3.9
TVA 22.1 17.1 17.8 20.2 20.8 18.3 18.2 19.9 17.8 17.3 20.1 19.4 18.1 18.2 19.2 18.5 -0.7 -2.1
Other 7.9 7 7.3 8 7 6.2 6.8 7 5.9 6.6 7.4 6.8 6.7 6.6 7.2 6.7 -0.5 -1.1
South Central 85.5 85.1 81 86.9 83.6 86.5 89.9 87.9 78.2 77 83.5 85.1 85.5 80.7 85.5 81.7 -3.8 -9.7
ERCOT 52.3 53.2 49.5 52.3 50.8 55 57.8 56.2 47.8 46.3 51.4 52.8 53.3 47.2 53 49.8 -3.2 -8.4
SPP 33.1 31.9 31.5 34.5 32.8 31.5 32 31.6 30.3 30.7 32.1 32.2 32.2 33.5 32.5 31.8 -0.6 -1.3
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mountain 38.7 35.5 34.9 37.1 37.9 36 36.8 38.3 36.1 35.5 37.4 37.1 37.4 37.2 36.7 36.8 +0.1 -2.2
DSW 17.8 16.5 16.2 17.4 17.4 17 17.1 18.2 16.8 16.7 17.6 17.1 17.1 17.1 17 17 0 -1.5
Rockies 20.9 19.1 18.8 19.8 20.5 19 19.7 20.1 19.3 18.9 19.8 20 20.3 20.1 19.7 19.8 +0.1 -0.8
Pacific 55.1 50 50.5 54.7 54.5 54.8 55.8 57.5 51.1 50.4 54.4 54.8 55.2 54.6 53.6 53.4 -0.2 -6.4
CAISO 25.4 23.8 23.8 26.2 25.8 26.7 26.5 26.8 23.6 23.2 25.4 25.6 25.5 25 25.4 24.7 -0.7 -3.2
PNW 23.7 20.8 20.8 22.7 22.8 22.1 23.4 24.3 22.1 22 23.2 23.4 23.9 23.8 22.3 23 +0.7 -2.2
Other California 6 5.3 5.9 5.9 6 6.1 5.9 6.4 5.4 5.2 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.6 -0.3 -1
Total US 521.5 471.4 472.4 505.1 497.9 487.2 491 490 451.7 454.3 486.3 489.1 485 486.7 492.4 475.5 -16.9 -38.3


Figure 9 | Nuclear Plant Outage

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