NG NA Premium Morning Report - 2025-09-04   Print
DateThursday September 4, 2025 5:15 AM
NG NA Premium Morning Report - 2025-09-04
Commentary
During Wednesday’s trading session, the prompt month of October demonstrated notable strength, rising by $0.10 to approximately $3.10. This upward movement contributed to gains in cash markets throughout the Gulf and South Central regions, with the Henry Hub price reversing its previous trend. By market close, the October contract had settled at $3.06. In terms of market fundamentals, the Upper Midwest is experiencing cooler temperatures, while conditions across the eastern United States remain variable—parts of the Ohio Valley are similarly cool, whereas areas further east are still encountering warm weather. The South Central region will see a brief warming trend for several days, although this is expected to shift as widespread cooling moves in by next week. Out West, California began transitioning away from recent high temperatures today, with the Pacific Northwest to follow Friday. Power burns are projected to decrease starting this weekend and remain subdued into early next week. Production has shown minor fluctuations following the long holiday weekend. From a meteorological perspective, cumulative cooling degree days (CDDs) in the 11-15 day range are higher than those in the 6-10 day period and align with current grid levels, placing them well above seasonal norms as a declining trend sets in. Currently, the prompt month is trading up $0.05, reaching an outright price of $3.11, which matches the peak observed during the previous trading session.

Figure 1 | WSI Daily CDD/HDD Comparison
Forecast CDD's Latest Run Date 9/4/2025 10:28 UTC Compared to Run Date 9/3/2025 10:28 UTC Delta
Region 1-5 Day 6-10 Day 11-15 Day Total 1-5 Day 6-10 Day 11-15 Day Total 1-5 Day 6-10 Day 11-15 Day Total
East 13.4 7.9 9.9 31.2 13.8 7.9 9.7 31.4 -0.4 0 0.2 -0.2
Midwest 0.9 3.4 3.8 8.1 1.5 2.4 4.5 8.4 -0.6 1 -0.7 -0.3
Mountain 3.2 3.3 3 9.5 3.1 3.3 3 9.4 0.1 0 0 0.1
Pacific 5.1 3 5 13.1 5.7 3.2 4.2 13.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.8 0
South Central 10.2 11 10.7 31.9 11.2 10.1 11 32.3 -1 0.9 -0.3 -0.4
US 32.8 28.6 32.4 93.8 35.3 26.9 32.4 94.6 -2.5 1.7 0 -0.8

Figure 2 | Natural Gas Daily Supply/Demand Dashboard
Continental US Supply/Demand (BCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY Forecast
Type Component Sep-24 Aug-25 Sep-25 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10
Production 97.1 98.47 97.63 98.42 97.99 98.1 97.7 98.17 98.17 96.47 (1.7) (1.16) (2) +0.52 97.42 97.6 97.32 97.36 97.43 97.47
Can Imports 7.02 6.49 6.21 6.23 6.21 6.2 6.14 6.13 6.25 6.32 +0.07 +0.11 (0.17) (0.81) 5.73 6.08 6.19 6.27 6.24 5.93
LNG 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 (0.01) 0.03 +0.03 (0.04) (0.02) +0.04 (0.06) 0.03 0.02 (0.05) 0.01 (0.15)
Supply 104.14 105.01 103.9 104.76 104.32 104.42 103.95 104.42 104.41 102.81 (1.6) (1.08) (2.19) (0.24) 103.1 103.71 103.54 103.58 103.69 103.25
PowerBurns (40.85) (43.11) (39.19) (37.45) (36.45) (36.08) (37.57) (39.46) (39.96) (39.77) +0.19 (0.58) +3.34 +1.66 (35.85) (30.72) (28.41) (30.79) (30.34) (30.88)
ResCom (9.88) (10.06) (10.22) (9.94) (9.97) (9.95) (9.49) (9.73) (10.16) (11.51) (1.34) (1.29) (1.45) (0.34) (8.09) (8.58) (8.74) (8.85) (8.81) (8.36)
Industrial (22.76) (22.4) (22.55) (22.5) (22.35) (22.38) (22.4) (22.58) (22.58) (22.66) (0.08) (0.11) (0.26) +0.2 (21.2) (21.02) (21.05) (21.16) (21.08) (21.07)
MX Exports (6.82) (7.23) (6.55) (7.12) (7.04) (6.72) (6.6) (6.62) (6.5) (6.47) +0.02 +0.07 +0.76 +0.27 (6.54) (6.59) (6.68) (6.59) (6.66) (6.56)
LNG~ (12.21) (15.34) (15.01) (15.08) (15.12) (15.04) (15.16) (15.19) (14.85) (14.83) +0.03 +0.18 +0.51 (2.8) (15.05) (15.06) (15.07) (15.13) (15.11) (14.98)
Demand (92.51) (98.15) (93.52) (92.09) (90.93) (90.16) (91.21) (93.58) (94.04) (95.23) (1.19) (1.72) +2.91 (1.01) (86.72) (81.96) (79.95) (82.51) (82) (81.85)
Pipeline Loss (3.4) (3.39) (3.31) (3.25) (3.52) (3.5) (3.3) (3.51) (3.15) (3.28) (0.13) +0.03 +0.12 +0.09 (3.31) (3.4) (3.45) (3.44) (3.5) (3.4)
Other* (5.94) (6.25) (6.25) (6.25) (6.25) (6.25) (6.25) (6.25) (6.25) (6.25) 0 0 0 (0.31) (5.78) (5.78) (5.78) (5.78) (5.78) (5.78)
Net Supply/(Demand) 2.3 (2.78) 0.82 3.17 3.62 4.51 3.19 1.08 0.97 (1.94) (2.91) (2.77) +0.84 (1.47) 7.28 12.56 14.35 11.85 12.4 12.22

Figure 3 | Natural Gas Production
Noms (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
Country Region Sep-24 Aug-25 Sep-25 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4
Canada 15,134 15,552 15,754 15,655 15,720 15,776 15,921 16,033 15,608 15,803 15,571 (232) (183) +19 +620
Canada 15,134 15,552 15,754 15,655 15,720 15,776 15,921 16,033 15,608 15,803 15,571 (232) (183) +19 +620
East 32,038 32,871 32,663 32,820 32,800 32,647 32,691 32,582 33,081 32,717 32,272 (445) (391) (599) +625
GulfOfMexico 1,768 2,248 2,235 2,211 2,187 2,204 2,216 2,225 2,268 2,225 2,224 (2) (12) (24) +467
Mountain 18,095 17,665 18,090 18,240 18,220 17,911 17,969 18,479 18,388 18,048 17,445 (603) (645) (221) (5)
OtherStates 875 859 840 848 856 847 869 846 825 864 826 (38) (14) (33) (35)
Pacific 210 211 180 205 209 205 205 212 194 147 166 +19 (14) (45) (31)
South Central 44,115 44,617 43,617 44,541 44,145 44,179 44,150 43,352 43,412 44,169 43,536 (632) (81) (1,081) (498)
United States 97,102 98,471 97,625 98,865 98,417 97,994 98,100 97,696 98,167 98,170 96,469 (1,701) (1,157) (2,002) +524
Total 112,236 114,023 113,379 114,520 114,137 113,770 114,020 113,729 113,775 113,972 112,040 (1,933) (1,340) (1,984) +1,143

Figure 4 | Natural Gas Power Burns
Total Estimate (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
EIA Region Sep-24 Aug-25 Sep-25 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4
East (17,445) (18,697) (16,000) (16,099) (15,160) (14,444) (14,149) (14,249) (15,893) (16,610) (17,248) (639) (1,249) +1,449 +1,445
Midwest (4,856) (4,896) (3,762) (3,778) (3,584) (3,339) (3,200) (3,817) (4,030) (3,817) (3,383) +434 +379 +1,514 +1,094
Mountain (3,339) (3,716) (3,723) (3,817) (3,473) (3,578) (3,629) (3,659) (3,931) (3,648) (3,656) (8) +67 +60 (385)
Pacific (2,730) (2,728) (3,596) (3,207) (2,793) (2,798) (2,808) (3,360) (3,848) (3,746) (3,430) +316 +166 (703) (866)
South Central (12,481) (13,074) (12,107) (11,323) (12,442) (12,296) (12,290) (12,481) (11,761) (12,135) (12,050) +85 +57 +1,025 +374
Total (40,851) (43,112) (39,188) (38,224) (37,452) (36,455) (36,076) (37,566) (39,462) (39,956) (39,767) +189 (580) +3,344 +1,663

Figure 5 | LNG Exports - Lower 48 Perspective
Liquified Natural Gas (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
Direction Location Sep-24 Aug-25 Sep-25 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4
Calcasieu (1,275) (1,601) (1,174) (1,607) (1,632) (1,636) (1,626) (1,200) (1,181) (1,158) (1,158) 0 +16 +443 +101
Cameron (1,830) (1,886) (2,014) (1,954) (1,939) (2,026) (2,055) (2,026) (2,026) (2,026) (1,976) +50 +38 (90) (183)
Corpus Christi (2,014) (1,831) (1,511) (1,547) (1,557) (1,415) (1,429) (1,589) (1,553) (1,456) (1,446) +10 +65 +384 +503
Cove Point (406) (675) (620) (674) (698) (689) (687) (643) (643) (585) (608) (23) +11 +66 (214)
Elba (350) (368) (369) (371) (375) (376) (376) (363) (372) (372) (371) +0 (2) (3) (20)
Freeport (1,895) (1,630) (1,861) (1,844) (1,344) (1,388) (1,319) (1,874) (1,874) (1,839) (1,856) (17) +5 (226) +34
Plaquemines (15) (3,018) (3,097) (3,071) (3,129) (3,123) (3,126) (3,085) (3,161) (3,057) (3,086) (29) +11 (69) (3,082)
Sabine (4,425) (4,333) (4,361) (4,280) (4,402) (4,466) (4,419) (4,383) (4,381) (4,358) (4,324) +35 +38 +9 +63
Export (12,209) (15,341) (15,008) (15,348) (15,076) (15,119) (15,038) (15,163) (15,190) (14,852) (14,826) +26 +182 +515 (2,798)

Figure 6 | Canadian Imports/(Exports) - Lower 48 Perspective
Noms (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
Region Sep-24 Aug-25 Sep-25 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4
AB Imp/(Exp) 4,681 4,528 4,236 4,548 4,527 4,588 4,515 4,296 4,207 4,224 4,219 (5) (17) (309) (445)
BC Imp/(Exp) 1,076 1,090 1,250 1,172 1,230 1,251 1,254 1,272 1,328 1,200 1,200 0 (50) +110 +174
Central Imp/(Exp) 1,738 1,657 1,653 1,698 1,717 1,734 1,735 1,640 1,651 1,661 1,661 0 +8 +4 (85)
East Imp/(Exp) (477) (787) (928) (1,035) (1,247) (1,360) (1,301) (1,071) (1,051) (831) (759) +72 +169 +28 (451)
Total 7,018 6,488 6,211 6,383 6,227 6,212 6,202 6,136 6,135 6,253 6,320 +67 +109 (167) (807)

Figure 7 | Mexico Imports/(Exports) - Lower 48 Perspective
Total Estimate (MMCF) Last Yr Month Avg Prev Month Avg Curr MTD Avg Past Week Dly Delta Dly v. Curr MTD Dly v. Prev Month YoY
Region Sep-24 Aug-25 Sep-25 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4
Cali (442) (513) (495) (504) (470) (471) (493) (512) (576) (378) (514) (137) (19) (2) (53)
DSW (311) (340) (311) (328) (335) (335) (332) (335) (334) (276) (297) (21) +14 +43 +1
TXS (3,980) (4,333) (4,385) (4,285) (4,228) (4,027) (3,583) (4,321) (4,300) (4,448) (4,472) (25) (87) (139) (405)
TXW (2,077) (2,029) (1,346) (2,021) (2,072) (2,187) (2,290) (1,420) (1,393) (1,391) (1,178) +213 +168 +851 +732
Total (6,810) (7,215) (6,536) (7,137) (7,105) (7,020) (6,698) (6,588) (6,603) (6,493) (6,461) +32 +75 +753 +274


Figure 8 | Lower 48 Power Demand
<----Actual Today Forward----> Averages Delta
Category            8/28      8/29      8/30      8/31      9/1      9/2      9/3      9/4      9/5      9/6      9/7      9/8      9/9      9/10      Prev 7     Next 6     WOW      Next Day
Canada 37.3 37.1 34.9 36.1 36.9 38.5 38.9 33.4 19 18.2 18.3 19 18.8 18.6 37.1 18.6 -18.5 -14.4
AESO 11.7 11.9 11.4 11.2 11.2 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.4 10.8 11.1 11 10.8 11.4 10.8 -0.6 -0.1
BCH 8.6 8.9 7.7 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.2 7.9 -0.3 -0.1
IESO 17 16.3 15.8 16.7 17.9 19.3 19.7 14.2 17.5 0 -17.5
Northeast 33.7 32.7 30.3 31.1 32.7 35.3 35.6 35.6 37.9 35.7 31.9 32.8 32.7 33.4 33 34.1 +1 +2.3
ISONE 14.8 14.3 13.3 13.6 14.4 15.4 15.5 15.6 16.9 16.1 14.3 14.6 14.5 14.7 14.5 15.2 +0.7 +1.2
NYISO 18.9 18.4 17 17.5 18.3 19.8 20 20 21 19.6 17.6 18.2 18.3 18.7 18.6 18.9 +0.3 +1.1
Mid-Atlantic 100.5 100.7 90.5 91.6 97.6 107.5 108.5 105.6 113 101.7 89.8 96.2 97.9 101.6 99.6 100 +0.5 +7.3
PJM 100.5 100.7 90.5 91.6 97.6 107.5 108.5 105.6 113 101.7 89.8 96.2 97.9 101.6 99.6 100 +0.5 +7.3
Southeast 111.1 112.7 107 102.5 104.7 112 110.1 113 118.7 118 109.6 108.2 107.4 108.3 108.6 111.7 +3.1 +5.7
Carolinas 31.4 33.4 30.7 28.8 29.1 30.6 31.1 32.8 35.5 36.2 31.2 31.1 31.1 30.8 30.7 32.6 +1.9 +2.7
Florida 48.2 47.1 44.7 42.3 44.7 46.9 45.6 44.6 44.4 44.3 45 45.4 44.6 45.1 45.6 44.8 -0.8 -0.2
SOCO 31.6 32.1 31.7 31.4 30.9 34.5 33.4 35.6 38.8 37.5 33.5 31.8 31.7 32.4 32.2 34.3 +2.1 +3.2
Midwest 119.8 119 115.1 114.6 119.7 126 122.5 116.8 118.6 103.1 104.3 110.8 111.7 114.5 119.5 110.5 -9 +1.8
MISO 91.1 86.2 82.9 83.4 87.9 94.5 90.8 86.6 85.5 76.9 77.2 82.6 82.3 84 88.1 81.4 -6.7 -1.1
TVA 21 24.5 24.4 23.7 23.8 23 23.3 23.1 25.1 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.6 23.4 21.8 -1.6 +2
Other 7.6 8.3 7.9 7.4 8 8.4 8.5 7.2 8 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.7 7.9 8 7.3 -0.7 +0.9
South Central 124.4 116.2 108.9 103.5 110.2 117 119.5 124.6 118.2 102.1 100.3 106.9 113.1 118 114.2 109.8 -4.5 -6.5
ERCOT 83.6 76.8 71.7 66.7 72.3 76.4 76.6 83.6 82.9 68.5 65.8 68.7 73.8 76.8 74.9 72.8 -2.1 -0.7
SPP 40.8 39.3 37.1 36.7 37.9 40.6 42.8 41 35.3 33.5 34.5 38.2 39.3 41.1 39.3 37 -2.3 -5.7
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mountain 51.2 50.6 51.1 53.4 55.3 54.7 53.4 51.5 47.5 45.4 48 50.8 51.1 51.9 52.8 49.1 -3.7 -4
DSW 29.1 29 29.6 30.9 30.7 29.9 28.4 27.1 24.6 24.3 26.2 27.9 28.4 28.6 29.7 26.7 -3 -2.5
Rockies 22.1 21.6 21.5 22.6 24.6 24.8 24.9 24.4 22.9 21.1 21.8 23 22.7 23.3 23.1 22.5 -0.7 -1.5
Pacific 69.1 71.1 69.2 71.4 74.3 77.7 76.2 72.4 67.6 61.2 61.2 63.3 63.2 61.6 72.7 63 -9.7 -4.8
CAISO 35.9 38.4 39 39.6 41.6 42.4 42.3 39 35.3 33 33 34.5 34.3 33.4 39.9 33.9 -6 -3.7
PNW 24.4 23 20.5 21.7 22.2 24.7 24.5 24.4 24 20.4 20.5 20.8 20.6 20 23 21 -2 -0.4
Other California 8.8 9.7 9.7 10 10.5 10.5 9.4 9 8.3 7.8 7.7 8 8.2 8.2 9.8 8 -1.8 -0.7
Total US 609.8 602.9 572.1 568 594.4 630.1 625.7 619.5 621.4 567.2 545 569.1 577.1 589.3 600.4 578.2 -22.2 +1.9


Figure 9 | Nuclear Plant Outage

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