| CAISO Morning Report - 2025-03-14 |
Market Round Up
Today brought a satisfying conclusion to California’s week of cloudy weather with average midday settles coming in at $42.19 in NP15 and $37.98 in SP15. The weekend and the subsequent week should bring a return of curtailments as the skies turn blue and let sunlight hit the panels once again. From a load perspective, the warmer temperatures are going to start eating away as the morning and evening ramp peak demand levels while the light load will start to fade into the sunset the deeper we get into March. On the hydro front, the runoff will have to wait a bit as the higher elevation temperatures need some time to make a difference. It should be noted that the Diablo Canyon Unit 2 is still showing roughly 50% offline (moved up slightly day-on-day), the .569 GW offline helps keep the auction clears propped as any lost baseload needs to be made up from imports or the natural gas fleet within the state.
Table 1 | CAISO Day Ahead Hourly Supply/Demand
| Hourly Data for 3/14 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | AVG | HE7-8 | HE9-16 | HE17-22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Scheduled Load | (22,997) | (24,262) | (24,122) | (23,429) | (22,336) | (21,306) | (20,661) | (20,333) | (20,592) | (21,124) | (22,076) | (23,420) | (24,571) | (25,219) | (24,937) | (24,038) | (22,839) | (23,630) | (21,738) | (24,044) |
| Virtual Supply | 457 | 325 | 145 | (855) | (1,522) | (957) | 103 | 218 | 454 | 143 | 262 | 524 | 1,359 | 1,083 | 1,358 | 1,583 | 293 | 391 | (284) | 1,028 |
| Net Demand | (22,541) | (23,938) | (23,977) | (24,284) | (23,858) | (22,263) | (20,558) | (20,116) | (20,138) | (20,981) | (21,814) | (22,896) | (23,212) | (24,136) | (23,578) | (22,455) | (22,546) | (23,239) | (22,022) | (23,015) |
| Supply | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Imports | 4,929 | 4,883 | 4,650 | 4,045 | 3,908 | 3,681 | 3,227 | 3,170 | 3,408 | 3,554 | 3,746 | 4,556 | 5,076 | 5,311 | 5,132 | 4,801 | 4,255 | 4,906 | 3,705 | 4,770 |
| Forecast Wind | 2,506 | 2,601 | 2,525 | 2,383 | 2,260 | 2,155 | 2,183 | 2,417 | 2,665 | 2,884 | 3,055 | 3,118 | 3,147 | 3,183 | 3,269 | 3,379 | 2,733 | 2,554 | 2,434 | 3,192 |
| Forecast Solar | 10 | 929 | 3,455 | 5,877 | 7,595 | 8,833 | 9,735 | 10,444 | 10,610 | 10,180 | 9,001 | 5,550 | 1,369 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5,224 | 469 | 8,341 | 2,653 |
| Biogas | 148 | 147 | 139 | 143 | 149 | 150 | 147 | 148 | 149 | 149 | 152 | 153 | 153 | 153 | 153 | 152 | 149 | 148 | 147 | 153 |
| Biomass | 133 | 136 | 134 | 137 | 140 | 135 | 133 | 134 | 132 | 131 | 138 | 130 | 133 | 133 | 130 | 136 | 134 | 134 | 134 | 133 |
| Geothermal | 700 | 694 | 701 | 705 | 715 | 717 | 715 | 720 | 721 | 726 | 729 | 762 | 770 | 760 | 752 | 750 | 727 | 697 | 715 | 754 |
| Hydro | 2,460 | 2,474 | 2,159 | 2,031 | 1,857 | 1,724 | 1,511 | 1,415 | 1,465 | 1,558 | 1,985 | 2,413 | 2,894 | 3,267 | 3,216 | 3,033 | 2,216 | 2,467 | 1,715 | 2,801 |
| Small Hydro | 208 | 204 | 201 | 195 | 191 | 191 | 192 | 193 | 192 | 191 | 201 | 219 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 218 | 204 | 206 | 193 | 216 |
| Nuclear | 1,607 | 1,607 | 1,609 | 1,609 | 1,608 | 1,608 | 1,607 | 1,605 | 1,606 | 1,606 | 1,606 | 1,606 | 1,608 | 1,608 | 1,609 | 1,610 | 1,607 | 1,607 | 1,607 | 1,608 |
| Natural Gas | 9,839 | 10,264 | 8,405 | 7,159 | 5,434 | 3,069 | 1,108 | (131) | (810) | 2 | 1,201 | 4,389 | 7,841 | 9,501 | 9,098 | 8,375 | 5,297 | 10,051 | 3,030 | 6,734 |
| 3/14 vs 3/13 Delta Changes by Resource Type | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Scheduled Load | (408) | (231) | (81) | (192) | (209) | (142) | (552) | (615) | (965) | (1,033) | (554) | (361) | 25 | 239 | 225 | 270 | (287) | (320) | (474) | (26) |
| Virtual Supply | 144 | 379 | (143) | (1,087) | (1,321) | (609) | 145 | (230) | 203 | 44 | (101) | (339) | (241) | (24) | 111 | (192) | (204) | 261 | (375) | (131) |
| Imports | (1,859) | (2,165) | (876) | (1,033) | (1,112) | (895) | (1,214) | (902) | (345) | (234) | (440) | (460) | (1,276) | (1,133) | (992) | (1,015) | (997) | (2,012) | (826) | (886) |
| Net Demand | (265) | 148 | (223) | (1,279) | (1,529) | (751) | (407) | (845) | (762) | (989) | (656) | (700) | (216) | 216 | 336 | 79 | (490) | (58) | (848) | (157) |
| Forecast Wind | 811 | 585 | 277 | (89) | (546) | (1,025) | (1,351) | (1,374) | (1,308) | (1,203) | (1,030) | (857) | (653) | (387) | (66) | 264 | (497) | 698 | (827) | (455) |
| Forecast Solar | (4) | (159) | (911) | (1,647) | (1,670) | (1,564) | (1,513) | (1,379) | (1,653) | (2,228) | (2,512) | (1,835) | (511) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,099) | (82) | (1,571) | (810) |
| Natural Gas | 1,312 | 1,513 | 1,543 | 3,938 | 4,779 | 4,082 | 4,405 | 4,524 | 3,974 | 4,733 | 4,581 | 3,612 | 2,246 | 1,126 | 620 | 613 | 2,975 | 1,413 | 3,997 | 2,133 |
| Heatrates | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Heatrate SoCal CG | 12.2 | 12.91 | 11.92 | 9.04 | 7.98 | 7.51 | 6.76 | 6.21 | 5.6 | 5.57 | 6.33 | 7.35 | 10.27 | 10.79 | 10.66 | 10.3 | 8.84 | 12.55 | 7.57 | 9.28 |
| Natural gas/HR delta | 1,294 | 982 | 635 | 3,346 | 1,554 | 935 | 870 | 961 | 794 | 915 | 811 | 2,874 | 4,456 | 3,341 | 2,950 | 11,784 | 2,406 | 1,138 | 1,251 | 4,369 |
| Heatrate Change | 1.01 | 1.54 | 2.43 | 1.18 | 3.08 | 4.37 | 5.06 | 4.71 | 5.0 | 5.18 | 5.65 | 1.26 | 0.5 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 2.6 | 1.28 | 3.88 | 1.33 |
| Load Delta Percentage | ||||||||||||||||||||
| %LoadDelta | 1.78 | 0.95 | 0.33 | 0.82 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 2.67 | 3.03 | 4.69 | 4.89 | 2.51 | 1.54 | (0.1) | (0.95) | (0.9) | (1.12) | 1.36 | 1.36 | 2.25 | 0.16 |
Figure 1 | CAISO Net Load Charts
Figure 2 | Marginal Cost of Congestion (MCC) at SP15 & NP15
|
Figure 3 | Day-on-Day SP15 Hourly Heat Rates (SoCal CG) vs Load & Renewables
Table 2 | Daily Price Table
| 1x16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Flow Date | Prices | Spreads | Gas | Heat Rates (Socal CG) | GHG | mT Carbon per MWh | ||||||||||||||||
| Auction LMP | Carbon | Energy | SP-NP | Auction LMP | Carbon | Energy | ||||||||||||||||
| NP | SP | NP | SP | NP | SP | LMP | CARB | ENE | PG CG | SOCAL | SOCAL CG | NP | SP | NP | SP | NP | SP | CAISO | NP | SP | ||
| Sun 3/9 | 12.07 | 12.36 | 3.23 | 3.28 | 8.84 | 9.08 | 0.28 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 3.82 | 3.04 | 3.85 | 3.16 | 3.21 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 2.31 | 2.36 | 33.02 | 0.10 | 0.10 | |
| Mon 3/10 | 39.17 | 23.46 | 11.52 | 6.63 | 27.65 | 16.83 | -15.71 | -4.89 | -10.81 | 3.82 | 3.04 | 3.85 | 10.25 | 6.10 | 3.01 | 1.72 | 7.23 | 4.37 | 33.02 | 0.35 | 0.20 | |
| Tue 3/11 | 48.44 | 47.78 | 13.67 | 13.08 | 34.77 | 34.70 | -0.65 | -0.59 | -0.07 | 4.11 | 3.46 | 4.24 | 11.78 | 11.26 | 3.32 | 3.08 | 8.46 | 8.18 | 33.02 | 0.41 | 0.40 | |
| Wed 3/12 | 50.68 | 37.68 | 13.79 | 9.96 | 36.89 | 27.72 | -13.00 | -3.83 | -9.17 | 4.20 | 3.52 | 4.27 | 12.05 | 8.83 | 3.28 | 2.33 | 8.78 | 6.50 | 32.00 | 0.43 | 0.31 | |
| Thu 3/13 | 40.16 | 33.88 | 11.15 | 9.26 | 29.01 | 24.62 | -6.28 | -1.89 | -4.39 | 3.95 | 3.15 | 3.95 | 10.17 | 8.59 | 2.82 | 2.35 | 7.35 | 6.24 | 31.35 | 0.36 | 0.30 | |
| Fri 3/14 | 50.76 | 48.43 | 14.68 | 13.31 | 36.08 | 35.11 | -2.33 | -1.36 | -0.97 | 3.73 | 3.19 | 3.95 | 13.62 | 12.25 | 3.94 | 3.37 | 9.68 | 8.88 | 31.04 | 0.47 | 0.43 | |
| 3/7-3/14 | 35.76 | 29.97 | 10.04 | 8.14 | 25.72 | 21.84 | -5.79 | -1.90 | -3.89 | 3.95 | 3.24 | 4.02 | 9.03 | 7.39 | 2.54 | 2.01 | 6.49 | 5.39 | 32.35 | 0.31 | 0.25 | |
Table 3 | Day Ahead Transmission Flows
| HL - Transmission Flows in MW | |||||||||||||
| Group | Fri 3/7 | Sat 3/8 | Sun 3/9 | Mon 3/10 | Tue 3/11 | Wed 3/12 | Thu 3/13 | Fri 3/14 | Delta | Mar25 Avg | Mar24 Avg | ||
| NP15 - PACI | 821 | 567 | 651 | 1,060 | 914 | 628 | 1,111 | 669 | -442 | 786 | 415 | ||
| NP15 - SMUD | -2 | 33 | 80 | 45 | 79 | -45 | 103 | -88 | -191 | 35 | 168 | ||
| SP15 - NOB | -76 | -47 | 182 | 112 | 124 | -33 | 443 | -121 | -565 | 24 | 167 | ||
| SP15 - PV | 1,562 | 1,632 | 1,744 | 1,920 | 2,356 | 2,154 | 1,722 | 2,159 | +437 | 1,825 | 1,498 | ||
Table 4 | CAISO Day Ahead Zonal Supply/Demand
| Date | 3/5 | 3/6 | 3/7 | 3/8 | 3/9 | 3/10 | 3/11 | 3/12 | 3/13 | 3/14 | D/D | Last7 | Prev7 | W/W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NP15/ZP26 | ||||||||||||||
| Demand | (9,944) | (9,878) | (9,434) | (8,468) | (8,106) | (9,315) | (9,295) | (10,004) | (9,971) | (9,987) | (16) | (9,307) | (9,456) | 150 |
| Imports | 943 | 821 | 893 | 676 | 786 | 1,165 | 1,035 | 634 | 1,381 | 716 | (665) | 913 | 914 | (1) |
| Hydro | 1,915 | 2,452 | 2,225 | 2,043 | 1,737 | 2,169 | 2,312 | 2,311 | 2,420 | 2,420 | 0 | 2,202 | 2,129 | 73 |
| Nuclear | 2,274 | 2,276 | 2,276 | 2,275 | 2,273 | 1,630 | 1,629 | 1,622 | 1,607 | 1,607 | 0 | 1,806 | 2,274 | (468) |
| Solar | 644 | 1,919 | 2,667 | 2,991 | 3,026 | 2,676 | 2,216 | 1,609 | 2,182 | 1,384 | (798) | 2,298 | 2,049 | 248 |
| Wind | 479 | 119 | 234 | 26 | 128 | 54 | 529 | 614 | 598 | 668 | 70 | 374 | 383 | (9) |
| Other Renewables | 755 | 748 | 751 | 756 | 726 | 748 | 752 | 697 | 707 | 707 | 0 | 728 | 753 | (25) |
| Virtuals* | 549 | 34 | 1,281 | 1,123 | 577 | 1,009 | 277 | (454) | 335 | 151 | (184) | 431 | 1,144 | (713) |
| Net Thermal | (2,386) | (1,508) | 893 | 1,422 | 1,146 | 135 | (545) | (2,971) | (740) | (2,333) | (1,593) | (555) | 190 | (745) |
| NP15 Pricing | ||||||||||||||
| Bilateral Price $ | - | - | - | - | - | 39.0 | 50.0 | 53.0 | - | - | 0 | 47.33 | 37.45 | 9.89 |
| Auction Price $ | 54.75 | 43.85 | 27.48 | 17.35 | 12.07 | 39.17 | 48.44 | 50.68 | 40.16 | 50.76 | 10.6 | 36.95 | 35.76 | 1.18 |
| Auction Heatrate | 9.6 | 7.55 | 4.84 | 3.27 | 2.31 | 7.23 | 8.46 | 8.8 | 7.35 | 9.69 | 2.33 | 6.73 | 6.59 | 0.14 |
| SP15 | ||||||||||||||
| Demand | (12,082) | (12,375) | (11,392) | (9,903) | (9,218) | (11,061) | (12,131) | (11,918) | (12,504) | (12,794) | (290) | (11,361) | (11,379) | 18 |
| Imports | 3,261 | 3,222 | 1,611 | 2,085 | 2,059 | 3,082 | 3,878 | 3,776 | 3,959 | 3,418 | (542) | 3,179 | 2,398 | 782 |
| Solar | 3,602 | 5,740 | 5,969 | 7,313 | 7,402 | 7,113 | 4,071 | 5,138 | 4,142 | 3,840 | (301) | 5,574 | 5,630 | (56) |
| Wind | 1,366 | 2,558 | 2,602 | 105 | 234 | 297 | 381 | 1,203 | 2,587 | 2,023 | (564) | 976 | 2,308 | (1,333) |
| Other Renewables | 323 | 321 | 322 | 324 | 311 | 321 | 322 | 299 | 303 | 303 | 0 | 312 | 323 | (11) |
| Virtuals* | 119 | 160 | 162 | 75 | 80 | 82 | 85 | 113 | 161 | 142 | (20) | 105 | 152 | (46) |
| Net Thermal | (3,411) | (373) | (725) | (2) | 868 | (166) | (3,393) | (1,390) | (1,351) | (3,068) | (1,717) | (1,215) | (569) | (646) |
| SP15 Pricing | ||||||||||||||
| Bilateral Price $ | 42.92 | 34.75 | 16.99 | 16.99 | - | 27.96 | 43.25 | 42.46 | 33.48 | 25.0 | (8.48) | 31.52 | 21.68 | 9.85 |
| Auction Price $ | 52.77 | 31.82 | 20.83 | 15.38 | 12.36 | 23.46 | 47.78 | 37.68 | 33.88 | 48.43 | 14.55 | 31.28 | 24.97 | 6.31 |
| Auction Heatrate | 9.07 | 5.46 | 3.64 | 2.91 | 2.36 | 4.37 | 8.18 | 6.5 | 6.24 | 8.84 | 2.6 | 5.63 | 4.53 | 1.1 |
Table 5 | FMM/DAM
| Prices for 03/13 | HE7 | HE8 | HE9 | HE10 | HE11 | HE12 | HE13 | HE14 | HE15 | HE16 | HE17 | HE18 | HE19 | HE20 | HE21 | HE22 | AVG |
| SP15 DAM | 61.20 | 62.23 | 51.82 | 42.83 | 26.52 | 16.78 | 8.79 | 7.71 | 2.68 | 1.59 | 3.14 | 33.09 | 53.38 | 57.17 | 57.16 | 56.01 | 33.88 |
| SP15 FMM | 59.60 | 65.31 | 53.68 | 60.10 | 52.83 | 36.49 | 34.21 | 22.66 | 18.14 | 11.06 | 2.78 | 21.84 | 49.86 | 59.04 | 60.67 | 59.42 | 41.73 |
| SP15 FMM-DAM | -1.60 | 3.08 | 1.87 | 17.27 | 26.31 | 19.71 | 25.42 | 14.95 | 15.45 | 9.47 | -0.37 | -11.25 | -3.52 | 1.88 | 3.51 | 3.41 | 7.85 |
| NP15 DAM | 60.46 | 61.99 | 52.35 | 47.04 | 44.42 | 39.72 | 26.04 | 18.87 | 8.93 | 9.60 | 16.29 | 32.78 | 53.51 | 57.33 | 56.91 | 56.33 | 40.16 |
| NP15 FMM | 60.42 | 68.76 | 59.18 | 65.04 | 54.46 | 46.60 | 37.48 | 35.58 | 30.16 | 30.50 | 15.39 | 20.48 | 49.45 | 57.29 | 61.70 | 60.62 | 47.07 |
| NP15 FMM-DAM | -0.04 | 6.77 | 6.83 | 18.00 | 10.04 | 6.88 | 11.44 | 16.71 | 21.23 | 20.90 | -0.90 | -12.30 | -4.06 | -0.04 | 4.79 | 4.29 | 6.91 |
| SP15-NP15 FMM | -0.82 | -3.45 | -5.50 | -4.94 | -1.63 | -10.11 | -3.27 | -12.92 | -12.02 | -19.44 | -12.62 | 1.36 | 0.41 | 1.75 | -1.04 | -1.19 | -5.34 |
| Virtual Supply/Demand | 313 | -54 | 288 | 232 | -201 | -348 | -43 | 448 | 251 | 100 | 363 | 864 | 1600 | 1107 | 1247 | 1775 | 496 |
| SP15 Virtual ITM* | |||||||||||||||||
| NP15 Virtual ITM* |
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